It's the burbs

by Terry Jones

     Claire McCaskill's recreational vehicle heading down Missouri's highways and byways was a recurring image in the media's coverage of the 2006 United States Senate race. The narrative was straightforward: She lost the 2004 governor's election to Matt Blunt by not doing well in outstate Missouri. In 2006, there would much more face time in small town Missouri. No longer was rural Missouri being conceded to the Republicans.

     When McCaskill won on Nov. 7, many pointed to the outstate strategy as a major contributor to her victory. The numbers, however, tell a somewhat different and more complex story.

     Let's partition the state into five segments: central cities (Kansas City and St. Louis), suburban (Jackson County outside the City of Kansas City and St. Louis County), exurban (Franklin, Jefferson and St. Charles Counties in the St. Louis region and Cass, Clay and Platte Counties in the Kansas City area), micropolitan (Boone County and Greene County containing, respectively, Columbia and Springfield) and everything else ("outstate" for lack of a better term).

     To keep things simple, let's use margins-the difference (to the nearest thousand) between the two major candidates-to analyze what happened. In 2002, when Jim Talent narrowly defeated Jean Carnahan, his statewide margin was 21,000. In 2006, when Talent lost, McCaskill's margin was 48,000. The swing, then, was 69,000 votes.

     Where did McCaskill pick up or, if you prefer, Talent drop the 69,000-vote difference? Not much of it came from outstate Missouri. Talent won it by 113,000 in 2006, just 5,000 less than his 118,000 margin in 2006. Central cities were also a secondary part of the story: Carnahan won Kansas City and St. Louis by 98,000 in 2002 and McCaskill prevailed by 109,000 in 2006, an important but still relatively modest gain of 11,000. If the election was all or mostly about rural and urban Missouri, Talent would have narrowly retained his seat.

     McCaskill closed most of the gap in the suburban segment, stretching Carnahan's 21,000 margin in 2002 to 61,000 in 2006. She also made substantial gains in exurban Missouri, narrowing Talent's 15,000-vote lead in 2002 to 2,000 in 2006.

     In short, suburbia and exurbia provided the geographic difference. In all likelihood, they will remain the principal battleground for statewide elections in the foreseeable future. Suburbia remains the biggest dog on the electoral porch with 39.4 percent of the statewide vote, about the same as in 2002. Exurbia's share continues to rise, going from 16.8 percent in 2002 to 18.3 percent in 2006.

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     Pity the poor pollster. If your last pre-election poll is off the mark, everybody reminds you that the only poll that counts is the vote on Election Day. If it's on the money, you are greeted by ho-hums for telling people what they already knew.

     How did the national public polls do in the Missouri U.S. Senate race? Very well. Here, courtesy of www.pollster.com, are the results from polls where interviewing was completed within a week of the election. Remember the actual percentages are McCaskill 49.6 and Talent 47.3.

     SurveyUSA's last poll (completed Nov. 6) was McCaskill 50 percent, Talent 44 percent; Rasmussen (Nov. 5) had McCaskill 48 percent, Talent 49 percent; Gallup (Nov. 4) McCaskill 49 percent, Talent 45 percent; Mason-Dixon (Nov. 3) McCaskill 46 percent, Talent 45 percent; and Zogby (Oct. 30) McCaskill 46 percent, Talent 43 percent. The final Research 2000 poll funded by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV (Channel 4), finished Oct. 26, had a dead heat: McCaskill 47 percent, Talent 47 percent.

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     Missouri was a prominent player in the which-party-will-control-the-Senate story but only a spectator in the fight for ruling the House of Representatives. The reason: none of the state's nine congressional districts is competitive.

     Why the lack of competition when the state, as a whole, tilts back and forth between the two major parties?

     The answer: when the Missouri General Assembly redrew the lines in 2001, it followed a protect-the-incumbent-party dictum. Giving voters a choice was not on the agenda. As a result, Missouri has four safe Democratic and five secure Republican seats. All incumbents won by 61 percent or more, with the average share at 66 percent.

     Until the 2011 redistricting, the only seat even close to competitive is the Fourth Congressional District, held by longtime Congressman Ike Skelton, the new Armed Services Committee chair come January. Skelton remains highly popular in a district that stretches from the southeastern outskirts of Kansas City down through south central Missouri. But if the decidedly blue dog Democrat ever retires, the district will become a Republican target.

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     St. Louis County continues its own internal trend of having residential areas increasingly sorted out by political preferences: Democrats gravitate toward Democrats, Republicans toward Republicans. Out of the County's 28 political townships-the electoral division used for voting-17 voted 60 percent or more for either McCaskill or Talent. Only three have margins five points or less: Bonhomme (the Kirkwood area), Gravois (Crestwood, Sunset Hills) and Maryland Heights

     Terry Jones is professor of political science at UM-St. Louis.